Economist Brian Arthur: Non-Equilibrium Economics needs Computational Economics

At the International Congress on Agent Computing, held at George Mason University in Fairfax, VA, November 29-30, 2016, economist Brian Arthur posed six questions for the future of economics.

Arthur described his view that we are now in a time of:

1. Fundamental uncertainty – agents simply don’t know what they face – they must constantly learn, “cognize,” adapt, and grow

2. Technologies that keep changing – all times, all levels: there is permanent disruption. Whatever the tech game is now, it will be different in just 2 years.

We’re now in a world where forecasts, strategies, and actions are being “tested” for survival within situations – an ecology – that those forecasts, strategies, and actions created.

This is the essence of agent-based modeling (ABM).

Six questions:

1. What would a non-equilibrium economics look like?
2. What temporary phenomena would we see?
3. What do complexity economics and political economy have to say to each other?
4. How does the economy form over time and how does it change in structure?
5. What insights would non-equilibrium economics have for policy?
6. Can we have a third rigorous branch of economics – computational economics?

Economist Brian Arthur: Non-Equilibrium Economics needs Computational Economics

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